By Dr Chukwuma Destiny Ogbonnaya
Peter Obi is the underdog in 2027 General Elections based on strategy analysis of competitions, games and wars. To understand the theory of underdog, you must understand the principles in the story of David and Goliath. David is the archetype of the underdog (i.e. an underestimated opponent with hidden capacities and capabilities) and Goliath is the archetype of the giant (I.e. the establishment or resource-rich opponent who appears undefeatable but has vulnerabilities). David mysteriously defeated Goliath with a catapult and one stone out of five, and this has always been the story of the underdogs. Do not be distracted by money, power, structures, political rhetorics and propaganda against Peter Obi. He is the David in the 2027 context and this explains why he is at the centre of attacks from opponents as well as a recipient of goodwill and safeguarding from millions of supporters. Attacks and rhetorics around him are the usual dynamics around the underdogs within the theory of the underdog. But, it is expedient that Nigerians, particularly the Nigerian middle class at home and in diaspora (including but not limited to teachers, lawyers, entrepreneurs, accountants, engineers, doctors, bankers, civil servants, public servants, security men and women, etc) understand the time of Nigeria in world history and join the political activities on X, Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp, in-person, at polling units to support Peter Obi as the underdog. Nigerians need to use Peter Obi, who has availed himself at a very high personal costs, to reset the Nigerian Political Order. Nigeria can work for every Nigerian beyond the political elites. We can all agree that the Nigerian system is failing majority of the masses in different ways. The Nigerian political class is anxious and emotional because they know that Peter Obi is the David in this 2027 political competition. There is a sense in which the Nigerian political elites talk as if they had sterilised the minds and hearts of Nigerians and induced permanent political apathy through intimidation, manipulation, misinformation and disinformation. Yet, the political elites might be right if the Nigerian middle class at home and in diaspora chose to disengage from political participation but somehow rationalise political apathy. The Nigerian middle class must engage differently with 2027 General Elections leveraging the internet and their capacity to research and apply analytical and critical thinking skills. Nigerians must act decisively to reset the Nigerian Political Order to rescue the nation from political characters that dehumanise the citizens and insult our collective intelligence. Nigeria and Nigerians need to be respected again, globally. Peter Obi remains the most viable pathway to reset Nigeria in 2027 and return power to the people. Democracy allows citizens to cause regime change through the Ballot Box, not through violence. This is how US, UK and European democracies work.
Abraham Lincoln defined democracy as the government of the people by the people for the people. This article discusses what democracy means for Nigeria and Nigerians as they prepare for 2027 General Elections. There are three groups of people involved in a democracy and this article will focus on how the Nigerian state dynamics could be shaped by the interactions of these three groups of people.
GROUP 1: ACTIONS OF THE PEOPLE
Democracy must be agreed as the way to organise a society. This is why the people have to agree on how they can participate in governance through a constitution. As imperfect as the 1999 Constitution is, it suffice to hold Nigeria together as a state. This can be improved, but the point here is that Nigeria is a democratic state.
The design and processes of democratic practices in any democratic state across the globe is up to the people – same with Nigeria. The two most valuable principles of a democracy are participation and separation of powers. Voting and being voted for remains the maximum form of participation by the people. In Nigeria, the political elites focus on a single point of failure in Nigerian’s polical system, which is disenfranchisement through preventing people from voting or not allowing votes cast to count. PDP was the giant in 2015 while APC was the then underdog. APC defeated PDP and NDC can defeat APC. The dynamics of 2015 and 2027 elections must not be the same but the outcome could be the same based on the theory of underdog.
Separation of powers in a democracy forms the arms of government. These arms enable citizens to participate in diverse fashions in a democracy. By design, the Legislatures make the law, the Executive implement the law and the judiciary interprets the law. So, democracy provides an architectural design for statecraft. Principles of governance differentiate democracy from monarchy, communism, theocracy and other forms of government.
Currently, APC dominates the Executive, Legislative arms and appoints the judges in the Judiciary arm. The only people who can change the dynamics are voters, particularly the literate Nigerian middle class. The Nigerian middle class must stop indulging in learned helplessness or induced hopelessness and rise up to take back their country through the Ballot Box in 2027 for the sake of our future generations. Through raw patriotism as was shown to late M. K. O. Abiola, Nigerian citizens must not allow religion, ethnicity, regional biases to come in the way of this rescue mission! The goal is to vote against the political elites and the establishment as the Goliath by supporting and voting for OBI/KWANKASO of the NDC as David.
GROUP 2: ACTIONS BY THE PEOPLE
“Of the people” provides the static structuring of democratic practices in a democratic state such as Nigeria. The people must configure and deploy democracy to deliver good governance because it is not given that every democratic state automatically functions productively. Until democracy delivers for the people, it is anything but a democracy. Therefore, the deliverables from a democracy are based on what the people do. Thus, “by the people” is crucial for creating and sustaining a culture of democracy. Essentially, a culture of democracy provides a free and safe environments for the people to practice democracy.
The first culture in functional democracies is education. The second culture is freedom of speech and belief. Because education equips the citizens to think critically and analytically, it becomes the greatest cultural and countercultural tool to deepen democracy. “Of the people” means that the ideas and actions that create and sustain a democracy must be from among the people. Mass education makes it easier for many people to understand ideas, analyse debates, arguments and logically decide whether democracy is working or not. Educated Nigerian middle class must be courageous to detach emotionally and critically analyse the state of Nigeria today. Think of HE Peter Obi, HE Bola Tinubu, HE Atiku Abubakar as mere agents of the state that the people can hire or fire. It should be clear that elected politicians are employees of the people and the people can fire them through the Ballot Box. It is only in Nigeria that politicians jokingly or playfully hijack the electoral system and push away the people who hired them to evade being fired. Nigerian political elites of today return to citizens during election cycles to confuse, deceive, bribe or coerce them for votes to retain power as the Lord of the people. There is no better way to call voters fools without using the word fools than what Nigerian political elites are doing to Nigerians. Imagine for an example that Senator Nwebonyi of Ebonyi State was campaigning to his people on opposite side of a river, separated from his people by water. As a serving Senator in a ruling party, APC, both at the Federal and state level, he could not build a bridge for the people, even a wooden bridge, but he dared to ask for their votes, standing at the heaven’s gate while looking down at them at the gate of abyss.
“By the people” has two components – election and politicians. These people elected from the people through voting are agents of the state but not gods. They can not get angry enough to seize the rains over Nigeria neither can they cause droughts if voted out. You would expect your agents to act on your behalf, at your pleasure and in your best interests. You are wise if you fire ineffective politician by voting them out. In democracies with strong institutional values, politicians act as agents with high sense of duty and responsibility, not as lords and kings lording it over the citizens as slaves. Politicians can only serve the people if they knew that they could face the consequences of being fired during election cycles. The Conservative Party under Rishi Sunak was fired by the UK citizens as they hired Labour Party under Keir Stammer. US citizens fired the Democratic Party under Kamala Harris and hired the Republican Party under Donald Trump. Nigerians must decide who gets hired or fired, not INEC or the judiciary. Election is very important. Thus, it should be transparent and quality assured to the extent that the Judiciary should not hire for the people. Consider the case of Imo State where Sen Hope Uzodinma who came 4th position in a Gubernatorial election was hired by the judiciary for the people of Imo State but fired Rt. Hon Emeka Ihedioha who came first. This is a manifestation of a democracy with weak institutions and strong men and women who can glitch the system.
In a state with high literacy, the people can silently short-crcuit the activities of self-centred political elites by voting them out when they fail to deliver to the people. Uneducated voters lack the capacity to take complex and complicated decisions required to determine the state dynamics of the nation to enhance its dynamics through hiring of effective political leaders. Democratic knowledge gap makes the Nigerian middle-class vulnerable to political rhetorics of people in position of power or political position. For instance, the Governor of Anambra State, a former CBN Governor, Professor Chukwuma Soludo, is apparently using his position of power and Anambra State resources for propaganda against HE Peter Obi who is a citizen of Anambra State. What a mixup! There is nothing wrong in Prof Soludo supporting HE Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the APC; but it is wrong for him to use Anambra State resources and brand against a citizen of Anambra State who served the state meritoriously over 13 years ago. That is an abuse of power and office. His adventure is not about truthfinding, it is rhetorics. Prof Soludo is putting out emotionally charged messaging but Nigerians can see through the rhetorics and propaganda because there should not be such hullabalo assuming, but not conceding that HE Peter Obi created an interest-yielding cash asset of $155 million and a federal-government arranged credit line of $123 million. Credit lines are used to create assets and they only become liabilities to the extent it is drawn down. This is why long-term liabilities are treated as asset creating component in a balance sheet. That Prof Soludo was not arguing that HE Peter Obi borrowed and sqaundered a total of $278 million gives credence and validation to HE Peter Obi’s claims of being a man of prudence and a leader with foresight for the future generations. No Editor-in-Chief of any reputable academic journal would accept Professor Soludo’s thesis because it was ab initio fundamentally flawed, hence his arguement was loopsided and neither here nor there.
“By the people” is about what people do in a democracy. What people do shape the state of the the democracy, the sustainability of the state and the wellbeing of the people. Whenever a democracy fails, it becomes the worst form of government because it creates bottlenecks in the system. These bottlenecks create inefficiencies that reduce national productivity. When undemocratic agents seize powers, democracy will become a dangerous weapon of mass destruction. Education and freedom of speech are the first two casualties in any drifting democracy because democratic dynamics cannot change without changing the democratic cultures.
Given that states interact and compete with other states, it is obvious that maintaining the current state of Nigeria is not enough to radically improve good governance. A sustainable democracy must be evolutionary so that it can dynamically transition through stable future states. Visionary leaders are critical state agents required to evolve Nigeria to realise its place in Africa and the world. Nigeria remains the greatest country of black people and one of the most endowed countries in the world, in terms of people, climate and resources. Visionary leaders are positive change agents by nature and they have the capability to enhance the cultures that can translate into enhanced state of affairs. Nigeria should stop dreaming of old good days of 1950s and 1960s and roll up their sleeves like Ghana, India, Singapore and United States who were equally colonised by Great Britain but are now functioning as exemplar democracies. The problem with Nigeria remains LEADERSHIP! Nigerians, particularly the middle class must cause a regime change in 2027 and hire Peter Obi to create a new Nigerian Political Order where the people can easily decide the fate of hired political elites through elections. It is only then that politicians can strive to serve in fear of the laws and at the pleasure of the people as in other democratic climes.
A positive state dynamics in Nigeria would involve a consitent choice of transformational leaders who can enhance the state of the nation for the benefits of the people, transgenerationally. Who are benefiting from the Nigerian state today? In a democracy, the people must pay for misjudgements in hiring the wrong state agents because the state will degrade based on the activities of agents of the state. This is the net resolution of all the laws, policies, executive orders, programmes and propaganda of the state. Degradation of a state can easily be measured in forms of poor educational infrastructures, poor health outcomes, poor physical infrastructures, poor national productivity, poor security of lives and properties and poor democratic cultures. Are these indicators better today or do you objectively believe that these indicators will get better if you vote for APC? A weakness of democracy, which is also one of its strengths is that hired agents who underperformed exit through elections. It must be overemphasised that election is a legitimate power of the people to purge ineffective state agents in a democracy. Based on my best judgements whilst appealing to your sense of objectivity to suspend religious, ethnic and regional sentiments, I would recommend HE Peter Obi to Nigerians. I would recommend him to the consideration of the Nigerian middle class at home and in diaspora who are literate enough to cut through the noises, distractions and rhetorics of the political elites who do not care about the poverty of the masses nor the survival of the state.
GROUP 3: FOR THE PEOPLE
Rhetoric skills enables politicians to persuade the people with ideas. In a deeply divided state with poor democratic cultures and values, the people can be manipulated along affiliations to religion, ethnicity and region. The emotional bait to vote based on emotional attachment to affiliations instead of patroitism and nation-building leaves majority of the citizens to suffer unnecessarily in a country of abundance. This conditions the Nigerian middle class at home and in diaspora to carry not just their own cross but the burdens of poor people around them, whilst everyone watch the political elites enjoy life at the top. The degree of group affinity influences the state dynamics and Nigerian political elites fall back to these national faultlines to exploit them. Social identies shaping 2027 General elections include gender, ethnicity, religion, region, age, education, culture and values. Rhetorics allows politicians to demonstrate their understanding of how to build an inclusive state where rule of law gives every citizen equal rights before the laws. Many Nigerian politicians think that rhetorics is lying with sweet tongue or deceiving uninformed people or people at risk of information asymmetry. It is not clear whether some of these politicians do it intentionally or out of ignorance.
Rhetorics is permissible in a democracy. Some rhetorics point to policy direction. Examples of interesting rhetorics of HE Peter Obi are: ” I will move Nigeria from consumption to production”, ” I will use public money for public good”, and many more. Politicians can use rhetorics for campaigns, communications, persuassion, presentation of agenda and manifesto. Yet, rhetorics is not the same as manipulation, disinformation, misinformation and outright lies. Holding people in public office accountable is where the fourth realm, the media, and civil societies come into play in a democracy. This explains why democracy thrives in states with high literacy level as voters are able to independently analyse and verify opinions and facts to make the right decision. Imagine that HE Bola Tinubu stated that Nigerians should not vote for him for a second term if he fails to provide electricity. Through rhetorics, he elevated this to a promise to be kept, thereby making it a social contract relevant for 2027.
The greatest crime in a democracy is manipulating the decision of the people regardless of the way it is done. Changing the outcome of the votes by the people, whether through the judiciary or through INEC for whatever benefits is a crime tantamount to selling the people into slave trade to be enslaved. Institutions of the state such as INEC, Nigerian military, Nigerian Police forces, Nigerian paramilitary institutions, judiciary are required to facilitate and preserve the integrity and quality assurances of the electoral processes to protect the choices/decisions of the people. This implies that all citizens, regardless of their roles and class in the state, must have strong sense of agency to protect electoral processes for love of country. In a dysfunctional democracy, those who should enforce the laws champion the breaking of the laws. I always feel dreamy to watch video clips of law enforcement officers aiding and abating election rigging instead of apprehending offenders. The reality should rather be that the electoral body and the security forces are neutral and will preserve the will of the people as expressed through votes. Changing the will of the people through any means is therefore an act of extreme violence against the people; and should be treated like rape or robbery since they involve obtaining through voilence and without consent. Nigerians must not allow any means deployed to change the will of the people because it is the foundation of democracy. If democracy is for the people, then the will of the people must prevail, be respected and executed.
What matters most is the trust and legitimacy that state agents commands. Peaceful transition from one administration to another is made possible through the tradition of handover from an elected politician to the next, and from one generation to the next generation. This unbroken transfer of power creates stability and enabling environment for the practice of democracy for the benefits of the people. This explains why United States has endured as a democracy for over 200 years but felt threatened by the January 6 saga involving President Trump.
Finally, democracy has both static structures that keeps it fixed (i.e. executive, legislature and judiciary). Nonetheless, the dynamics of democracies is determined by state dynamics. State dynamics is fuelled by behavious and decisions of agentic politicians, participating voters and citizens, political structures, national cultures and the capacity of the people to make informed choices that could enhance the state of the nation. Nigerian democracy is as good as its practice. Democracy has strengths and weaknesses just like every human systems in our world. However, if the people deliberately choose wisely and elect leaders who will evolve the state for the benefits of the people, the people will enjoy the dividends of democracy. If on the other hand the people wilfully or ignorantly make wrong choices on the voting for the right agents through elections, the people will continue to suffer the consequences of bad decisions through their negative experiences of state actions and inactions. Consider a case of how the people of Abia State voted for Gov Alex Oti, whereas Professor Nnenna Oti, like Queen Esther insisted on the right thing, making her a historic state agent in 2023 General Elections. Today, everyone, including people who are not from Abia State is happy with the developmental outcomes in Abia State. Do not accept excuses that the performance of HE Alex Oti in Abia cannot be replicated nationally through visionary and pragmatic leadership. It is POssible!
The Nigerian middle class who are the most marginalised people in Nigeria must realise that Civic Education in a democracy is useful only when it enables you to vote for the right politician. In addition to voting wisely, educating those who cannot unravel the complexities of politics to vote wisely is a civic duty. This is why I am writing this article to shine light on the democratic issues before Nigeria. If 1 million Nigerian Middle Class educate 10 voters in favour of HE Peter Obi, rigging machineries will have no effects on 10 million votes. This is doable if the Nigerian middle class do not sit on the fence or sit at home on election day but actively mobilise a minimum of 10 persons to vote for HE Peter Obi. Citizen-citizen mobilisation as was the case in 2023 is required to push HE Peter Obi across the line regardless of the distractions of the rhetorics from people like Mr Daniel Bwala or Mr Bayo Ononuga. Voting for the right politician so that the nation will be built for the benefit and prosperity of all citizens cannot be wrong by any stretch of imagination. Education is not the same as going to school; otherwise, people with first degree, regardless of their discipline, will not be acting as polical thugs, stealing Ballot Boxes or changing election results. Sadly, Youth Corpers undergoing sacred National Service are taught how to falsify electoral results. Their first degree appears inadequate to make them aware that they are committing the original sin. In practical terms, people who dropped out at Primary School but understand the morality of preserving the sanctity of the electoral process are better educated than those Nigerian Professors who cook results in Excel sheets or accept alien results handed over to them by Nigerian political elites instead of reading the results collated from the polling units.
The Nigerian middle class must cut through the rhetorics and consider HE Peter Obi on the strenghth of his character, competence and compassion. The Nigerian middle class at home and in diaspora needs to reset the political system of Nigeria by patroitically educating the people they influence to vote for Peter Obi in 2027. Doing the right thing cannot be bad for your tribe, religion, region and ethnicity. My greatest fears after all my years of education is realising that half education is very dangerous because it makes the bearer robotic and inflexible to change of mind even in the face of overwhelming evidence. A truly educated person is one who is persuaded by evidence and reason. This is why it is difficult to cause an educated person to hate and you could see how educated Nigerians across all divides of religion, ethnicity, region and age supports HE Peter Obi. Educated people can politely exercise their democratic rights to disagree with ideas and make alternative choices, respectfully. In 2027, vote for individuals not political parties because Nigerian political parties lack ideology. Voting the right people regardless of their party is the true rainbow coalition, not as Minister Nyesom Wike has defined it.
Pointedly, when it comes to nation-building in a country like Nigeria that is begging for nation builders, promoting the recruitment of quality leadership agents who can transform the entire country is a moral duty. For instance, the previous generations failed to elect Obafemi Awolowo but it is generally agreed that Awolowo was the best President that Nigeria never had. My prayers is that Nigerians should not let HE Peter Obi to be the second best Nigerian President that Nigeria never had. The 2027 Election gives Nigerians the opportunity to think deeply and decide and vote for answers to these five questions. What type of country do we want? What type of Leaders do we want? What type of future do we want to bequeath to the future generations? What role must I play as a Nigerian citizen at home or in diaspora to build Nigeria of our dream? Have you been convinced to join other millions of Nigerians to support HE Peter Obi to win 2027 Presidential election?
Selling and buying of votes, accepting cash tranfers, rice, wrapper, noodles and food must fail in 2027 elections. If you exchange your votes for temporary material gains, it is a disservice to nation-building. Did you know that some Nigerian politicians steal your money, and use it to buy meaningless material items close to elections to deceptively and manipulatively exchange these items for your votes and votes of your loved ones. Nigerian voters should stop allowing political elites to deceive the citizens twice – stealing their money and stealing their votes with stolen funds. This culture must change, and 2027 is the time! Whether you take these items or reject them, vote for Peter Obi/Kwankwaso of NDC and reset the Nigerian political system.
Violence, thuggery, rewriting of results and Ballot Box snatching must fail in 2027 General Elections. Osun Governorship election showed that power belongs to the politically conscious people. The people must rise up as agents of good governance to vote and defend their votes by every legitimate means possible under the laws. This will ultimately preserve Nigerian democracy as a democracy in which the will of the people is supreme.
For democracy to work for Nigerians at home and in diaspora, the people must get involved to elect the state agents that can drive positive changes. I challenge the Nigerian middle class across the globe to overtly and covertly support Peter Obi as an alternative pathway to enact a New Political Order in Nigeria. 2027 gives Nigerians the golden opportunity to elect competent leaders across Nigeria, regardless of any affiliations. 2027 requires defending the votes beyond the capacity of INEC to glitch and beyond reasonable doubts of my Lordships at the Tribunal and Supreme court. Arise Oh Compatroits. Nigeria call, OBEY!
Dr Chukwuma Destiny Ogbonnaya (chukwuma.ogbonnaya2@Gmailis.
