Some Thoughts on The New National Development Plan (NEP 2021-2025)
By Comrade Issa Aremu mni
GREETINGS
On behalf of the Governing Board, management and staff of Micheal Imoudu National Institute for Labour Studies ( MINILS ) Ilorin, I salute the members of Ilorin Grammar School Old Students Association. How time flies! How we all fly with times! 55 years of IGS! 40 years I was admitted to the best secondary school on earth ! 45 years I “passed out” as a privileged student of 129-student Class/ Set of 77! I was NO 37: Aremu Obalowu Yissa of 1977 set. And remember that Mumeen Ganiyu, our Head boy was no 79. Salman Shehu 115. Musa Adeshina Wahhabism 80. It would be unthinkable then to imagine that some 50 years after, I would be here to give 55th Anniversary lecture of our Alma Malta. As the popular sayings go: “Time flees away without delay”. “Time truly has wings”! Standing here confirms the validity of the saying of Nelson Mandela that “Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world”!
CHALLENGE OF EDUCATION
DECLARE EMERGENCY
There are three major challenges facing Nigeria today. Number one is education! Number two is education!! Number three is education. I suggest we must urgently declare a national emergency to reinvent quality and quantity mass education through public primary and secondary schools like IGS. The Minister of State, Education, Chukwuemeka Nwajiuba, disclosed last year that 10,193,918 children out-of-school, making Nigeria a country with the highest number of out-of-school children in Sub-Saharan Africa.”.With this number on the streets combined with 50 percent open youth unemployment, Nigeria is still a peaceful country. I agree with the Minister Nwajiuba that all stakeholders must work in unity to strengthen the quality of education by addressing factors that denied children access to basic education.
LETS RECLAIM PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Education takes place in schools that are well maintained. I once again use this platform to commend kwara state Governor, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq for singling out Ilorin Grammar School, in Ilorin west LGA among other 29 public schools for Comprehensive renovation/construction of existing and additional facilities. On the 8th of January 2015, as part of my annual birthday cycling activity, I had a ride of nostalgia to IGS. I was shocked not only to see the collapse of the school facilities due to non-maintenance but scandalized that some part of the school lands had been farmed out to some private schools developers. I am happy today to see a new look IGS at 55. Thanks to the silent comrade Governor AbdulRahman!
The Federal government in collaboration with the states governors and through direct actions must urgently reclaim and protect public school lands as part of the genuine commitment to reinvent public education. Poorer Nigeria in the 50s, 60s and 70s built these public schools; richer Nigeria of 2023.
Thanks to Old Students Association for the privileged invitation.
TRIBUTES TO OUR PARENTS AND TEACHERS
Standing here is a singular tribute to our parents who set up this pioneer community school in Ilorin. Almost out of nothing but audacious commitment to raise us out of ignorance to the world of knowledge. I appreciate our parents who persevered to see us through the path of knowledge.
This reflection on THOUGHTS ON THE NEW NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN ( NEP 2021- 2025), is a tribute to all our teachers in Ilorin Grammar School (IGS) . I confess like Alexander the Great that: “I am indebted to my father for living, but to my teacher for living well.” Ajayi has named them all in his 50th anniversary lecture.
UNVEILING NDP
On December 27th 2021, H.E. Muhammadu Buhari, GCFR President and Commander-In-Chief of the Armed Forces Federal Republic of Nigeria unveiled Nigeria’s new National Development Plan (NDP). The new Development Plan signposts growth and development in the next four years 2021– 2015. By the singular historic launch, President Buhari has commendably returned Nigeria back to the trajectory of Development through comprehensive inclusive national Planning.
Kindly mind my word: “Returned” ! Nigeria used to be a promising developing “Planned Economy”. But the country got veered from the honored path of Planning and Development of the 60s and 80s to the unacceptable economic rudderless mantra of neo-liberal free market forces of the Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPS) of the 80s and 90s. As an undergraduate Economics student in the late 70s and 80s in both Ahmadu Bello University, Samaru Zaria ( ABU) and University of Port Harcourt, I learned almost by heart about the objectives, strategies and target settings of four major Development plans of Nigeria pre and post independence. But through out the 90s and even until recently, Nigeria seems Development blind and deal.
It is gratifying that Development agenda is back. Nigeria must replace urgently Corruption/Insecurity/ Underdevelopment Discourse with Development Agenda.
PAST PLANS
The first Ten- Year Development Plan was from 1946 to 1956. Nigeria was then under British Colonialism. A Plan under imperialism could hardly be for Development. It is nonetheless instructive that for the British colonialists to exploit Nigeria’s abundant wealth, it had to put a plan in place. The first National Development Plan was from 1962-1968, proclaimed two years after independence. Notwithstanding the devastation of the 30- month civil war, Nigeria commendably ran the Second National Development Plan from 1970-1974. The Third National Development Plan (1975- 1980) was launched in 1975, followed by post military era Fourth Development Plan (1981- 1985) ( Okigbo: 1993). However since 1985 and until recently “Planning” had been regrettably abandoned for disastrous debt-servicing contraptions which included “Austerity regime”, “Structural Adjustment Programmes” (SAPs), “Poverty Alleviation”, National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS), “Reform agenda”. Nigeria’s commitment to United Nations eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Goals of 2015 and 2030 Sustainable 17 Development Goals is certainly laudable.
However global goals are only complimentary. They are no substitutes for National Development Plans. At best past global declarations only bring home the great expectations of the late 70s: “health-for-all”, “education-for-all” and “eliminating-hunger-by-2000”. We all know Nigeria did not meet any of the above high sounding sign posts. A non- performing economy with scandalous constant power melt down, energy poverty and massive unemployment like Nigeria desperately needs a revolutionary development agenda beyond some global goals that might not reflect reflect national priorities. What is needed is fundamental stock-taking within the context of the new Plan launched by President Muhammadu Buhari.
WHAT IS PLANNING ?
K.B. Kalra (2006) in the Dictionary of Economics- defines Planning as “a comprehensive detailed consciously directed activity with pre-determined goals assigned objectives. It also lays down the pre-determined means to attain the assigned objectives. Planning is never piecemeal. It covers the whole country and includes all its sectors – agriculture, industry, trade, transport, building, and services”.
ORIGIN OF PLANNING
Popular acceptance of the Concept of planning in national Development owes its origin to the successes of defunct U.S.S.R. after the Great Bolshevik socialist revolution of 1917. In 1921, U.S.S.R adopted aggressive New Economic Policy ( NEP) which promoted agrarian and industrial revolution unprecedented in history. This made U.S.S.R to recover from the devastations of the two world wars in which USSR lost over 20 million people. USSR for as long it at lasted transformed from a poor country into a super power, that sent human to the moon and helped in the liberation of many African countries under colonialism. The world has since copied Soviet model of planning and agenda setting. EVEN UN MDGs, UNDP
WHY PLANNING MATTERS?
The importance of Planning cannot be overstated. Planning is good for personal well being as much as for nation building. There is a popular saying that “ By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”. In the age of food inflation every house wife does appreciate the importance of planning for the family to survive.
My house planner is here, my darling wife. With dramatic climate change and threat to survival of our planet, growing income inequality between the rich and the poor, unbridled arm race, avoidable wars, banditry of various hues, endemic pandemic of mutating viruses, only global socio economic planning would steer humanity from the brink.
WITHOUT PLANNING THE WORLD WOULD HAVE BEEN IMPERILED BY COVID ,
Planning is indispensable in the life of individuals as much as in the life of institutions, communities and nations. Sheikh Al Maktoum is the absolute ruler of Dubai and Prime Minister of UAE. I recommend all his books to all. MY VISION is a testimony to PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT.
In his latest book “My Story”, Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, identified Ten critical Rules for Leadership. Rule 3 of the 10 rules deals with Setting of PLAN. According to him “When you do not have a plan, you’re setting yourself up for failure. Many officials go about their work on a daily basis, failing to look forward to and plan for the week or month ahead. This is one of the major administrative challenges we face. The role of a real leader is to know in which direction to guide the team towards it, motivating them to persevere until they reach their goal. If you fail to set a plan, you end up wandering aimlessly. It does not really make a difference whether you arrive or not, since you are not going to arrive at anything of any value.”
IGS IS A PRODUCT OF PLANNING
We are here today, thanks to the Almighty Planner who created us and inspired the founding fathers and mothers of Ilorin Community as far back as 1967 to establish Ilorin Grammar School ( IGS) . My dear friend, the historian and a pride of IGS, Mr S. Ademola Ajayi (PhD) of Department of History , University of Ibadan brilliantly delivered the Golden Jubilee Anniversary Lecture of IGS in 2017. He ably chronicled how IGS was a product of the vision, “conception and planning” of the great leaders of Ilorin Descendants Progressive Union (IPDU), known today as Ilorin Emirate Descendants Progressive Union (IEDPU) (Ademola Ajayi.S 2017). We are assembled here today as the beneficiaries of a “Planned Ilorin Community” , “Planned Kwara State” and indeed a “Planned Nigeria”.
KWARA STATE TEN YEAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN
Planning could also be at subnational. It is significant to note that Governor Abdulsalam Abdulrasaaq of Kwara State just like President Buhari recently launched a 10-year sustainable N4.7 trillion Kwara State development plan (SDP) to run between 2021 and 2030. Speaking at the launch of the programme in Ilorin, in August last year, the State Governor, Mr. AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, stated that “the SDP envisions the bright future that the administration pursues, and is anchored on four pillars of governance and institutional reforms, economic development, social development, and infrastructural development.” It is commendable that AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq is bringing back Development Planning to Kwara State. The second (and the last) Development Plan of Kwara State was between 1975 and 1980. The State had its first development plan in 1970 which lasted for five years. The second development plan ran between 1975 and 1980. The new Sustainable Development Plan is the third of such comprehensive Kwara-specific blueprint which plans for the future of the state.
PLANS AND INSTITUTION BUILDING
The most successful institutions are borne out of planning and built out of strategic plans driven by visions of determined and committed leadership who run them.
COMMENDATION FOR CBN UNDER EMEFIELE
One of Nigeria’s functioning institutions is the Central Bank of Nigeria ( CBN) led by its 11th Governor Mr Godwin Emefiele. Appointed in 2014 by former President Goodluck Jonathan, Emefiele in his inaugural speech espoused “Entrenching Macroeconomic Stability and a Engendering Economic Development in Nigeria.” On reappointment by President Muhammadu Buhari he consolidated on the achievements of the first tenure through his popularized five-year policy thrust for another term of five years (2019-2024). With this framework, CBN within the context of its enabling Act continues to maintain sound financial structure, promote monetary stability, safeguard the value of Naira and stable exchange rate, proving to be a financial adviser to the federal government in the areas of price and exchange rate management, development financing, building foreign reserves and employment creation. The CBN has rolled out massive developmental interventions in critical areas such as agriculture, manufacturing and SMEs.Some of the CBN initiatives include the SME Credit Guarantee Scheme (SMECGS); Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Development Fund (MSMEDF); and Youth Entrepreneurship Development Programme (YEDP).Others are Agri-business/Small and Medium Enterprises Investment Scheme (AGSMEIS); Creative Industry Financing Initiative (CIFI); Targeted Credit Facility (TCF) and the Nigeria Youth Investment Fund (NYIF).The recently celebrated rice pyramid is made possible through the Archor Borrowers intervention program initiated by CBN.
I suggest that all public Institutions should espouse their strategic plans within a time frame of the tenure of the CEOs as the CBN commendably did.
MINILS AND PLANNING
On the 18th of May 2021, President Muhammadu Buhari GCFR appointed me as the Director General of the Institute, named after Chief Comrade Micheal Athokhamien Imoudu, undoubtedly tested NO 1 labour leader to come from Africa. The Michael Imoudu National Institute for Labour Studies, (MINILS) Ilorin established in 1986, almost 20 years after IGS established. MINILS was a product of the Fourth Development Plan (1981- 1985). The Institute was conceived to contribute to national development through regular capacity building, training of workers, employers and government officials on critical labour market issues aimed at promoting productivity and industrial harmony for sustainable development. Since its establishment, MINILS has trained mass of workers, trade unionists and employers from both public and private sectors. The training with certification had helped in building capacity for employees and employers alike in promoting industrial harmony. My appointment as the first Director General from the labour movement has renewed confidence of the organized labour in the Institute as the inevitable destination for training and policy dialogue on critical labour market and social economic issues.
The motto of Ilorin Grammar School is “ Ambition and Good manners”. This motto among other drives my resolve to reposition the MINILS which in recent times was unacceptably run down. We first strived to restore “good manners of punctuality and productivity” (our late pioneer Principal, Mr P.O. Olatunbosun inculcated in us ) in line with public service rules among the staff. In addition, we have initiated an ambitious strategic Plan from 2021 to 2025 with set targets on training, infrastructural renewal and institutional linkages at the Institute. Today I can reveal that Planning works at MINILS. We have brought back corporate governance through regular board meetings. We have institutionalized the culture of regular participatory management meetings with restored comradeship, brotherhood and sisterhood at the Institute. We have replaced the culture of fear and suspicion with love and trust. There is a commitment to transparency and accountability through budget process and openness in all dealings. Within 6 months,, we have completed and commissioned two of the inherited projects; namely ….His Excellency State Governor AbdulRahman Abdulrasaaq and Honourable Minister of State, Festus Kyamo respectively commissioned the projects. We have renovated two major hostels to accommodate participants who come for our regular programmes. (1) 20 Rooms hostel and clinic ₦96.5M. Completed and commissioned 2) Enterprenurer workshop /Jobs creation center ₦102M. Completed and commissioned.
(3) U-shaped a story office building with class rooms and mini auditorium ₦110M 90%completed
SPORTS CONNECTED TO COMMUNITY OLULANDE EMIR IDPU We have improved on the curriculum to reflect on the new realities of industrial relations to promote industrial harmony in the world of work. Our new Training Programme…
PLANS AND NATION BUILDING
BENEFITS OF PLANS
Development Plans historically set the national agenda for growth and development in Nigeria with amazing impressive outcomes. Scholars of growth and development underscore the importance planning for nation- building ( Gauba (2003) Baran (1968: 1) Ramaswamy (2003) Sachs (2005….) Nigeria was once one of the leading 10 newly independent economies by late 60s. Thanks to the past Development Plans. For instance, in 1965, Nigeria’s GDP was $5.8 billion, compared with $3.8 billion for Indonesia, $3.1 billion for Malaysia and $9.8 billion for Venezuela. By mid 90s, Nigeria’s GDP had increased to $26.8 billion (3.6 fold increase), Malaysia’s moved to $85 billion (27 fold increase), Indonesia’s to $198 billion (52 folds) and Venezuela to $75 billion (20 fold increase). Current Malaysia’s GDP 336.7 billion USD (2020) Nigeria’s $432.3 billion USD (2020) currently is the largest in Africa. But China’s GDP in 2020, is $ 14.72 trillion USD compared to $ 47billion in 1960. Consistent planning works for China. Nigeria’s era of militaristic “adjustments” and “reforms” as distinct from development left it criminally far behind in terms of productivity, income generation and general economic development. Indeed three notable National Plans set Nigeria on the part of growth and development in the 60s up to 80s. There are three global development challenges in the new millennium. The number one development challenge is China. The second development challenge is China. And the third development challenge is China. No country has recorded remarkable rapid economic ascendancy in the past 25 years like China. With 1.5 billion population and consistent 12% growth rate in the past 3 decades, China has shown that huge quality human resource is indeed an asset and not a liability. The new NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (2021-2025) opens the possibilities for Nigeria to fast rack it’s development.
TOP TWENTY HIGHLIGHTS OF NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN, NDP (2021-2025)
Nigeria’s National Development Plan 2021 – 2025 NDP succeeds Vision 20:2020 was introduced in 2009 and the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) introduced in 2017. The NDP is a bridge for the country’s long-term plan currently being developed, that is, Nigeria Agenda 2050. The vision as stated in the NDP is “to make Nigeria a country that has unlocked its potential in all sectors of the economy for a sustainable, holistic, and inclusive national development”.
Broad Objectives of the National Development Plan
- Economic diversification
- Investment in infrastructure
- Security and good governance
- Educated and healthy population
- Poverty alleviation
- Economic and
- Social development across states.
Funding: The NDP has a funding target of N348.1 trillion (Government N49.7 trillion; Private sector N298.3 trillion)
POVERTY ALLEVIATION AND JOBS
35 million Persons Out of Poverty, 21 Million New Full-Time Jobs by 2025
The plan aims to ensure that by 2025, 35 million people will be lifted out of poverty. The government aims to achieve this goal through accelerated, sustained, and inclusive economic growth, inclusive of social-protection initiatives. 21 million full-time jobs are also expected to be created from key sectors such as Agriculture, Manufacturing, Trade, Oil, and Gas that ‘account’ for 60% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product will be revitalized for achieving stronger economic growth as well as massive investment in key infrastructures such as physical, financial, digital, science, technology, and innovation.
INFORMAL SECTOR
Integrating Informal Sector, Widening Tax Base
The government also prominently listed the informal sector as part of its plans. The plan stated that as part of measures to ensure diversifying the economy and improving revenue, the informal sector is key. The plan includes widening its tax net and improving the Tax to GDP ratio. The intention of the government may have already been kick started with the recent finance bill that widens the tax scope of the country.
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SECURITY
Strengthening Security and Ensuring Good Governance
As part of its plan, the government has noted that it would address bottlenecks in delivering good governance through strict accountability as well as human and technological development.
EDUCATION AND HEALTH
The government also promised to prioritize Education and Health Sectors. The government also promised to ensure Teachers’ training while strengthening Nigeria’s health sector service delivery capacity.
The government noted that providing key infrastructures and improving access to social services will help better the state of security in the country.
The country will also invest in Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Drone Technology and Military science research to boost and enhance capacity.
Strengthening partnership between security operatives is also part of the strategy to improve the security situation.
The plan also aims to implement the Nigerian National Defence Policy and National Security Strategy.
The estimated public investment in National Security is expected to be N2.86 Trillion between 2021 to 2025.
Growing Real GDP, Increasing Private Investment and
Public Investment Growth
According to the plan, Real GDP is expected to grow by 4.7%. inflation-adjusted price of goods and services produced The document noted that this will be a boost from a contraction of 1.92% which occurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic and decline in Oil prices.
Increasing Capital Expenditures to 30%
The plan also revealed that the government will spend at least 30% of its expenditures on capital projects between 2021 and 2025. To this end, recurrent expenditure of the government will be sustained at optimal level while there would be efforts toward domestic resource mobilisation. This will include ensuring better non-oil revenues to help the country survive volatile oil prices.
EMPLOYMENT Unemployment Rate to an Average 22.78%
According to the plan, unemployment is expected to average 22.78% in the five-year period. The figures to watch out for are; 27.19% in 2021, 24.32% in 2022, 22.21% in 2023, 20.63% in 2024 and 19.56% in 2025. According to the plan, the government dedicates a minimum of 1% GDP to reversing the current unemployment trend of the country. Social protection for young, old and vulnerable is at the centre of the strategy. Again, the country is banking on Cash transfers, incentives for business growth, expansion of existing industry clusters to achieve its aim.
Growing Federal Government Revenue to N25 Trillion by 2025. The National Development Plan, the country’s revenue is expected to hit 25 Trillion by 2025.The expected revenue breakdown over the 5-year period is as follows; N6.6 Trillion in 2021, N9.0 Trillion in 2022, N13.7 Trillion in 2023, N18.8 Trillion in 2024 and N25.4 Trillion in 2025.
Breaking down the figure further, in 2021 Oil sector will contribute N2.0 Trillion, Non-Oil including VAT pool will contribute N1.4 Trillion, independent and other revenue will contribute N3.1 Trillion.
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At the end of the plan, Oil sector will contribute N2.6 Trillion for the Oil sector, N8.1 for the Non-Oil sector, N14.6 Trillion for independent and other revenues.
ELECTRICITY
Generation 10,000 Megawatts of Power by 2025
Nigeria’s power generation is expected to grow up to 10,000 Megawatts. By 2025, Nigeria aims to achieve 15% reduction in population without access to electricity.
The figure of those without access is put at 81 million persons. By 2025, it is estimated that over 75% of rural and remote locations will be provided with power via renewable energy sources including Solar, Wind, Small hydro-power and Biomass.
LABOUR DIMENSION
Growing Nigeria’s Labour Force to 74 Million Persons, Per Capita GDP to $3,700
The National Development Plan targets an increase in the Labour Force of the country to 74 million by 2025. According to the plan, the projection for 2021 is 67.05 million, 2022 is 68.75 million, 2023 70.44 million persons, 2024 72.20 million persons and 2025 74.01 persons. In the same vein, the Per Capita Gross Domestic Product is targeted to grow up to $3,700 dollars by 2025. These are the year by year details; 2021 $2,200, 2022 $2,500, 2023 $2800, 2024 $3,200 and 2025 $3,700.
The increase between 2021 and 2023 are pegged at $300 each while the figure increased to $400 in 2024 and $500 in 2025.
FDI
Increasing Nigeria’s Foreign Direct Investment to $5 Billion by 2025
According to details on the Nigerian Development plan, the foreign direct investment into the country is targeted to grow to $5 billion by 2025.
This is even as the country targets to increase the share of its exports to Africa up to 35% from a base figure of 20.43%.
The country also targets a World Economic Forum global competitiveness ranking of 100 and Ease of Doing business ranking of 100.
ICT
ICT Contributing 12.54% to Nigeria’s GDP by 2025
The National Development Plan has noted that the Information and Communication Technology Sector will contribute 12.54% to the GDP of the country by 2025. The country’s broadband penetration will also be increased to 60% according to the plan.
Between 2021 and 2025 500,000 youths are to be enrolled into advanced Digital skills Acquisition programs annually.
MILITARY SPENDING Reducing Nigeria’s Military Spending as a Percentage of GDP to 0.2%
According to details in the National Development Plan, by 2025, the country’s military spending as a percentage of the country’s GDP will drop to 0.2% from a current baseline of 0.15%.
LITERACY
Reducing the Number of Out of School Children to 5 million by 2025
According to details in the National Development Plan, Nigeria Out of School children will drop to 5 million by 2025. This is from the current 10.5 million children it is pegged at.
The plan includes that 10 Nigerian higher institutions will be among the top 1000 universities in the world away from the current four tertiary Institutions.
The literacy rate is also expected to increase to 80% by 2025.
HEALTH
Increasing Nigeria’s Universal Health Coverage to 25% by 2025
According to the National Development Plan, by 2025, Nigeria’s Universal Health Coverage will grow to 25% from the current 5%.
Life expectancy will also grow to 56 years.
The number of institutions offering health services through public private partnership are also expected to grow to 10% of 40,000 health institutions from the current 1% of 23,640 health institutions.
FOOD SECURITY
Food Security Index Growing to 60.1 by 2025
The country has revealed plans to improve its food security. According to the document, the Food Security index will increase by 20 points going from its current 40 points to 60 points by 2025.
Severe food insecurity is also expected to reduce from 19.6% to 10% by 2025. People who suffer malnutrition are projected to drop to 5% from the current 7% figure.
The number of children suffering from stunting are also targeted to reduce from 36.8% to 20%.
Under 5 mortality rate is also targeted to be reduced by 25%
90% of Nigerians to have Access to Safe Drinking WATER
Water by 2025
The Nigerian government says by 2025 90% Nigerians will have access to safe drinking water.
Currently, 68% of Nigerians have access to water supply services, but that number is expected to increase to 90% by 2025.
Access to basic sanitation services will also increase from 39% to 80%. The document states that open defecation will reduce from the current 23.5% to 10%.
Improving Gender Parity
GENDER PARITY
The government in its plan has projected that by 2025, the gender parity point of the country will improve from 128 to 100.
Gender based violence cases will also drop from 17.4% to 10%. (Federal Ministry of Planning: 2021)
CONCLUSION
WNATED: NEW PARTNERSHIP FOR DEVELOPMENT
NDP should form a new partnership for politics and development among all stakeholders! I suggest the new Plan be legislated upon such that regardless of which party wins next election, the Plan should inform policies in the next four years. Parties for 2023 elections should draw their manifestoes from the Plan.
WITH NEW PLAN, NIGERIA IS SET TO REPLACE CORRUPTION AGENDA WITH DEVELOPMENT AGENDA
NIGERIA SHOULD EMULATE CHINA
China is a model that shows that consistent Planning leads to development. China is currently running 14th 5-year Development plan while Nigeria is set for the 5th. Paradoxically China started the first plan almost same time with us from First Plan (1953–1957).
China shows that development process is NOT a zero-sum game in which growth is traded off for jobs and in which few are well-having and many lack basic well being. China shows that the issue is not extractive resources (China not an OPEC member) but value additions and manufacturing (China has more functioning oil refineries than Nigeria!). China shows that growing the GDP does not mean pushing mass of people into the margin of mass poverty. On the contrary, China is perhaps the only country since the great Industrial Revolution that has combined consistent aggressive Industrialization drive with high growth rate side by side with full employment. China shows that we can indeed have job-led growth. China has shown that addressing production issues is not mutually exclusive from confronting poverty and coming to terms with distributional issues.
Notwithstanding development gap, Nigeria has a lot in common with China and indeed could be another China, just as China used to be like Nigeria. Nigeria is the most populated country in Africa just as China is most populous country in Asia as well as in the world. In development the two are the largest markets in the world. We must learn from China in employing “gradualist approach” to reforms compared to “shock therapy approach”. ( AREMU.I: 2019)
Nigeria must learn and copy China, which at 70, (just a decade older) as a liberated country has almost banished illiteracy, gone to space, lifted more than 700 million people out of poverty, parades “over the past 70 years, GDP averaged an annual growth rate of about 4.4% for the first three decades and 9.5% for the last four decades. In 2020, China announced that “all people living below the current poverty line will be taken out of poverty”. Nigeria should be up-beat to say like China: independence has “brought enormous changes to the country, creating an unprecedented miracle of development in the world history”. The former Chinese Ambassador Dr. Zhou Pingjian, aptly puts it better the “path you take determines your future”. China was once “labeled as the “Sick Man of East Asia”, life expectancy at the beginning of the new republic was around 35 years. It rose to 77 years in 2018. The illiteracy rate in China stood at 80% in 1949, today the newly-added labour force has received over 13.3 years of education on average. The average years of schooling for the Chinese rose to 10.6 years in 2018 from 1.6 years in 1949. In 2019, the gross enrollment ratio in higher education rose to 48.1% from 0.26% in 1949”. Nigeria and Nigerians should stop agonizing but organize like China at 70, (or like Nigeria at 20 in 1980 with double digit growth rate which once dwarfed China’s growth!) through National Development Plan.
MINILS WILL PARTNER WITH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO POPULARIZE THE NEW PLAN AMONG LABOUR, EMPLOYERS, CIVIL SOCIETY AND PUBLIC SERVANTS. END
THIS THOUGHTS ARE DEDICATED TI THERE PEOPLE
DEDICATED TO MY LATE MOTHER, ALHAJA ABUSATU AMOKE WHO PHYSICALLY CAME TO IGS COLLECTED MY WASC RESULT IN 1977 WHILE WE WERE IN SBS ABU SAMARU ZARIA.
MY LATE WIFE HAMDALAT ABIODU. AREMU WHO CELEBRATED IGS @50 CELEBRATED MY 54th BIRTHDAY AT IGS WITH ME IN 2015
MALLAM YAKUBU AJADI OF SET 71 WHO DIED LAST WEEK
MAY ALLAH MAKE THEIR GRAVES COMFORTABLE
