Policy Making as Make Belief, By Jibrin Ibrahim

Nigerian policy makers and implementors love fiction and we as citizens play along. I just remembered that our next census is going to be in April, immediately after the elections in February and March. If there is need for a run off presidential election, it would happen just as the census is taking off. No sane country would roll out two massive high-cost events that require massive logistics and security arrangements within just days apart. Sanity says they simply cannot happen in the same year. In Nigeria, no one cares because we all know it is make belief and will not happen as planned. The elections will hold as they have to but the census will be pushed forward until the incoming government can work out how to plan, finance and roll it out in the coing years.

In fact, although the census in the government plan, it is not even in the 2023 budget, most probably because government could not find the source for the 533 billion naira it needs to borrow to count Nigerians. The 2023 population and housing census is the first digital count that will occur in Nigeria. It requires a massive geographic information system to cover the entire country to provide geocodes for each house in the country and will be covered by satellite imaging. Digital maps of all habitations will be generated and software will play a key role in analysing the date. All IDPs in the country will be captured and the housing element will capture sanitation data for all households in the country to allow us meet SDG 6. All these are to happen in two months time but government  has not even done the appropriation because everyone knows it will not happen as scheduled. Nonetheless, the National Population Commission is under obligation to say everything is going according to plan and it will happen as programmed.

Currently, we are supposed to be in the process of changing our old naira for new naira notes, another massive logistics challenge. Just six weeks were allocated for the change from 15 December to 31^st January. To convince us it is for real, President Buhari was displayed on television launching the new notes. When 15^th December came and banks did not have the new naira to distribute, except a few samples, the take-off date was pushed to 9^th February. In cornformity with the six-weeks allegedly needed for the swap, the end date should have been adjusted, but it was not, what needed six weeks will now be done in three weeks. Two days ago, the Central Bank warned banks to ensure they put enough new notes in their ATM machines for customers. Encouraged, I went to my bank only to find out they still do not have the new notes. I drew their attention to the warning of the Central Bank that they would be dealt with if they don’t give out the new notes and the manager laughed. The Central Bank has not got the notes to give them so the warning is public relations because the banks would all be afraid to expose the lies from the Central Bank for fear of repercussions, he explained.

I spoke to some people with inside information and was told essentially that the whole charade is drama. By law, only the mint can now print our currency. However, the capacity of the mint is minuscule in relation to the volume of new notes required so everybody in the CBN, banks and government know the plan will not work simply because of the capacity limitation we have. Nonetheless, we have to pretend it will work because there is a nice narrative to sell – the currency swap will expose corrupt politicians who have stolen government money to bribe during the elections and the government is committed to its anti-corruption policy so it’s a smart policy move to deal with corrupt politicians.

The real story will be something else, some people will make a lot of money in the printing process. Central Bank staff will preside over the distribution of scarce new notes and many will have to be bribing massively to get access to the new notes. Meanwhile the crisis will soon become serious as markets start to breakdown as the countdown to the withdrawal comes closer. In the coming days, people will start rejecting the old notes as the end date approaches but there will be serious scarcity of the new ones. The pressure will mount on government and a two months extension of the old notes will be announced and repeated again and again. Everybody knows that will be the eventual outcome so we just love living in our narratives of delusion.

Meanwhile, the back story is the most fascinating one. Just as the policy implementation was starting, the main implementor, the Governor of the Central Bank followed the President to the United States, disappeared from the return flight and apparently went into exile. The security agencies, it turned out, were trying to detain him just as the President was publicly asserting his support for the Governor. Government has refused to speak to the concerns of Nigerians of whether the CBN Governor is a terrorist financer or is being framed unfairly. Parliament calls the acting CBN Governor to find out whether enough notes have been printed and she says she does not know. The CBN Governor has not sent a press release from London to reassure Nigerians. The only thing we all know is that there is an intense process of lobbying for a new CBN Governor to emerge. MAYBE, just maybe, that might be the real story of printing the new currency. Someone will get a juicy job.

I will end with my most fascinating make-believe story over the past few weeks. The President has been repeatedly telling Nigerians that the security situation in the country has improved remarkably under his stewardship. It’s excellent fiction but as is usually the case, Nigerians know the real story. Long live policy fiction in Nigeria.