Our mixed (mis)fortunes,By Hakeem Baba-Ahmed

‘People who cast their votes do not decide the elections; people who count do’. Joseph Stalin.

       You are reading material I delayed writing yesterday, as long as the  deadline would allow.The idea was to see what can be said on Tuesday that will make sense on Wednesday. You may know as you read this material if we have a new President, C-in-C. Or you may still be waiting for INEC to muddle through a substantially self-inflected, messy process and  decide on a verdict that will raise the tensions and deepen the depression among those who can see beyond figures and celebrations.Whoever emerges president will need to know that his victory could be a poisoned chalice.The country will go through a trauma that could shake  its very foundations, largely because the elections have defied the widespread expectations that we can reverse  an ominous decline to avoidable total failure.

       I am not jumping with joy over surprises, upsets and confirmed predictions.Nor am I shedding tears at losses and disappointing failures.People who have been returned as Senators and Members of House of Representatives should celebrate with caution.They hold bits of a future of a nation that will need a lot of prayer, goodwill and effort from its elite to surmount the effects of an election that has  laid bare its weaknesses.It takes a lot to get me to be so depressed over the outcome of a process which, by its very nature, shows up countries in all their positives and negatives.What politicians, security agents, and citizens do, or fail to do in the next few weeks will determine whether or not this election is precisely what we needed to compound our woes in the search for a leadership selection process that will give us what we choose, as well as the probability that it is the best from those available.

 There so many disappointments about these elections, it is difficult to celebrate achievements, if there are any.The biggest is the failure of INEC’s processes and  its ability to retain confidence of the public in the manner it addressed those failures.INEC had said many times that its ability to avail the citizen the opportunity to see the entire election through technology is the foundation of the integrity of the elections.Uploading thus became the benchmark by which we were programmed to judge the Commission.If political parties and the public seize on the failures of INEC to raise issues about the credibility of the results, INEC should be held entirely responsible.INEC has made it difficult to separate mischief ( for instance, from parties that had won elections in many constituencies and States without IReC portal, but now want the entire elections to be cancelled)and subversion from people who simply want to cause trouble if their candidate does not win. 

    INEC’s insistence to push on with the elections with a vital element in its credibility missing may have been informed by very strong reasons regarding the law and guidelines which will challenge postponements or multiple cancellations.It could also have taken comfort in the window available to all aggrieved, the judiciary. It is difficult to see an option to continuing with the crippled process, but it was like saying the process is flawed, but we must take it to the finishing line. But we must demand to know if ALL options have been considered.Can we fix INEC’s flaws before announcement of results? Are there elections that can justifiably be cancelled? Have we become slaves to timing?How much can we play around with dates and timelines? Are there obvious remedial measures INEC can take to reduce hostility to its work?

Life-time sniffers of opportunities to throw sand into garri like President Obasanjo stepped out to pollute the environment further.He must know that his address was incitement in its crudest form.To speak in the manner he did, at the time he did, in his many capacities which include leading observer teams to many countries and even when the party he carried on his back was winning and breaking new grounds, was not the act of a statesman. He must know his appeal to President Buhari to do something was an empty populist gesture, because Buhari cannot do a thing at this stage of the elections.International observers did no favours to the growth and development of the democratic process in Nigeria by being polite and diplomatic in their interim reports which pointed out major breaches in security of the voting process, poor preparations,failures in basic voting and collating processes and competencies of the election officials.Those in developed democracies have had very low thresholds for Nigerian elections, drawn from experiences from the past and systemic prejudice, but even for them, a slap on the wrist makes them complicit in tolerating an election which is begging to be trashed.

 So, in a few hours as I write, INEC will announce a new, elected president.He will be announced in a context that shows they we are, today, a country that has never been more polarized by dangerous divisions around ethnic and religious identities.His victory will be overshadowed by security and political problems rooted in incitement and predisposition, and unforgivable failures of systems and processes.I say this, whether the winner is Obi, Tinubu or Atiku.They will drown the symbolism of all three winning, and gaining seats, in parts of Nigeria that defy traditional patterns.Parties ganging up to denounce the elections, demanding cancellation and removal of the INEC chair should be reminded that, at least as I write,  most Nigerians want to remain in a peaceful country.If anyone of them had won under this same arrangement, they would have been the ones defending it.Leading politicians should know that there are consequences for what they say and do.We understand why politicians are reluctant to take their cases to the judiciary:they have all contributed into turning it into what scares them.But the court of law is far superior to the court of supporters’ opinion.The latter can be exhausted by force.With the former, at least you have a small chance, depending on whether you are in or out.

You cannot accept only bits and pieces of a democratic process which suits your interest.If INEC returns the wrong candidate, we support challenging it in court.Politicians want us to go to war.We should not.I am  particularly proud of the conduct of most northern voters. We voted in peace, and allowed all contestants a chance to ask for our votes.We voted in the manner that suits our individual interests.We should demand even more emphatically that INEC makes amends where it can.We will not encourage or condone violence against anyone.We will also expect that northerners everywhere will be safe.


 It s very disappointing that elections that ought to have been the signal for a major turn-around have to end up pushing the country into more dangerous  grounds.If there are responsible Nigerians with the courage to intervene, this is the time to step forward.

Article first published by Vanguard