Niger Republic, Not Our By Kazeem Akintunde

The seven-day ultimatum handed down to the coupists in the Niger Republic by the Economic Community of West African States
(ECOWAS), ended yesterday.

ECOWAS had responded with fury, after military adventurists seized power in that country, issuing threats and giving the boys in khaki uniforms seven days to vacate power and restore the elected president to power failure of which they will deploy full force to kick them out.

With the ultimatum over, although guns and mortals are yet to start firing, both parties seem to be digging deep, preparing for such an eventuality. President Bola Tinubu, on Friday, wrote to the Nigerian Senate to inform the lawmakers of a possible military expedition in Niger Republic and to seek their consent. I am not sure if lawmakers from the North will approve of such an unproductive venture. Even before the lawmakers spoke, Northern power brokers have been calling on the President to have a re-think about such an action. I do believe that the President is using the carrot-and-stick approach to the crisis in that country. It should never get to the point of sending Nigeria’s military to Niger.

It is time for both parties to sit at the drawing board and think through the consequences of war. While Tinubu is pursuing all the options that are available to him, the General in charge in Niger is also talking tough. He has cut off diplomatic ties with France, the United States of America, Nigeria, and Togo while a series of anti-Tinubu demonstrations have been held in Niamey. His men have been patrolling the streets in a show of force and are being hailed by the masses as saviours.

They have asked ECOWAS and other international communities not to poke their noses into their internal affairs. Ironically, they are asking the Wagner Group and Russia to come to their aid. Confused lot, if you ask me.

As ECOWAS Chairman, Tinubu, has had to send former Head of State, AbdulSalami Abubakar, and the Sultan of Sokoto, Sa’ad Abubakar to Niger on a trouble shooting mission. This was after the President of the Republic of Benin, Patrick Talon met General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the head of the elite Presidential Guard that kicked out his boss in a coup d’etat on July 26.

Abubakar’s peace mission collapsed even before it started. The military boys are not ready to just surrender and go back to their barracks. Nobody will organize a coup, risking their lives to hand over the ‘booty’ to another man. Apart from that, the junta has succeeded in dividing the
regional body, ECOWAS, as Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Mali are now fully in support of the coup plotters. After all, leaders in those countries also rose to power through the barrels of the gun.

The possibility of the ousted President of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum returning to power is daily becoming slimmer. What Abdulsalami and the Sultan should be negotiating should be a quick return to democratic rule in Niger as well as a guarantee that the ousted leader and his family will be treated fairly and his dignity protected. Anything outside that would spell disaster for Nigeria and President Tinubu’s foreign policy engagement. Niger, one of the largest countries in the world with a landmass of 1, 267,000 km2, is more than twice the size of France or slightly less than twice the size of the United States of America’s city of Texas. But the
Sahara Desert covers about 65 per cent of the country.

Again, it is among the poorest countries in the world despite the huge Uranium presence in its soil. Uranium and plutonium are the two leading ingredients used in the making of atomic bombs. Hope you can now connect the dots. With a population of around 25 million people, 80 per cent of whom live below the poverty line, the country, like many other African nations, has had the misfortune of being led by inept leaders.

On July 26, military officers in the country arrested the country’s president and proclaimed that they are in charge of the country. They closed all the country’s borders and two days later, General Tchiani was announced as the new leader of the country. However, ECOWAS leaders led by Tinubu gave the junta seven days to restore Bazoum to power and immediately imposed sanctions on the country. Some of the sanctions from ECOWAS are the closure of all Niger borders and the suspension of trade, diplomacy, and financial services to the country; a no-fly zone was also declared over Niger and its military hierarchy. ECOWAS has stressed that it would impose more sanctions if Niger’s military fails to restore deposed President Bazoum in seven days. Two ECOWAS countries, Mali and Burkina Faso are ruled by soldiers who had also ceased power via coups and have expressed their support for the military takeover of power in Niger. In a joint statement issued last week, they vowed to “lend a hand to the people of Niger” to fight invaders. Mali and Burkina Faso warned that “any military intervention against Niger would amount to a declaration of war against Burkina Faso and Mali”.

The Wagner Group has also congratulated the new leader in Niger, and
has offered support. Even Russia has warned ECOWAS to thread softly
in Niger and that its threats to use force would yield no fruit. You can
read between the lines.
Although France, the United States of America, and the United Nations
are egging Tinubu on in his desire to restore democracy to the country, it
is not in our best interest to go to war with Niger now regardless of
international pressure. Acting on the contrary may be both suicidal and
costly.     
In intervening in Niger, Tinubu should be mindful of the fact that he is
dealing with a sovereign country, just like Nigeria. Niger gained
independence from France on August 3, 1960, almost two months earlier
than October 1, 1960, when Nigeria gained independence from Britain.
Hence, any action that Nigeria and by extension, ECOWAS, or any body

should take in Niger must respect the sovereignty of that country and
should be geared toward resolving the conflict in the interest of all.
Considering the proximity of Niger to Nigeria, the escalation of the
conflict in the former could be detrimental to Nigeria. Unlike what
ECOWAS did in the Gambia through ECOMOG, the Niger-Nigeria
border is about 1,608 kilometres. Seven states in Northern Nigeria –
Borno, Jigawa, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara States – also
share land borders with Niger Republic. Most of the communities
bordering Nigeria and Niger are tormented by all kinds of deadly
terrorist groups. An outbreak of hostilities between both countries will
be catastrophic, especially for Nigeria. Presently, there are about
300,000 Nigerian refugees in Niger due to the activities of the Boko
Haram sect and ISIS jihadist war in the area, although many Nigeriens
are also in Nigeria at the moment. What becomes of them in case war
breaks out in the region?
Apart from that, the Nigerian military is almost overwhelmed by internal
security operations against Boko Haram insurgents in the Northeast and
IPOB/ESN crisis in the Southeast. Being involved in another external
war will amount to Nigeria committing hara-kiri. With a total debt
hovering around N46.25 trillion according to the Debt Management
Office (DMO), how and where will Nigeria get the money and the men
to fund a war at this time? Already, foreign nations led by France and
Germany have started evacuating their Nationals out of Niger. Is Nigeria
going to lead another war against another sovereign nation this time
around?
Besides, there is the possibility of a conflict between the two West
African neighbours snowballing into a regional or global conflict. As I
stated earlier, Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso are already lining up
behind the coupists in Niger. The Wagner group is also waiting in the
wings while Russia is most likely to pitch her tents behind the coup
plotters. Are will ready to lead another proxy war between Russia and
the USA?

Unlike Nigeria, which has fought only one civil war since independence
(excluding peacekeeping operations), Niger is a veteran of many armed
conflicts. Niger was among the African countries that participated in the
Gulf War between 1990 and 1991 during Operation Desert Shield, which
was an armed campaign waged by a 39-country coalition against Iraq
over its invasion of Kuwait.
While defending democracy is good, the best guarantee against a coup in
Africa is to entrench good governance in all African Countries. It is sad
that despite her God-given wealth, most African countries are poor, with
millions of her citizens living in extreme poverty. Nigeria, who is trying
to play big brother to Niger, is not left out of this mess. Despite our
years of unhindered democratic rule since 1999, how many of our
people have been lifted out of the poverty quagmire? In actual fact, more
Nigerians have been dragged into the poverty conundrum since the
return of democratic governance in the country. African leaders should
ensure that they are in power for the benefit of their people and not for
their pockets alone.
It is an irony that Tinubu, who still has cases in court challenging his
election, is now leading the battle for the restoration of democracy in
another country. With one leg in office and the other leg limping, Tinubu
cannot claim to have the full mandate of Nigerians until the court cases
against him are disposed of up to the Supreme Court. While he is
playing big brother politics at the international level, he should think
more of alleviating the sufferings of millions of Nigerians due to the
twin policies of fuel subsidy removal and the unification of the dual
exchange rates in the country. He will definitely need to keep an eye on
the situation in Niger, but that should not be at the miscalculation of
taking military action against another sovereign country. What is going
on in Niger is more or less the second scramble for Africa between
Russia and the USA, Tinubu should not drag the country into the fray. It
is not our battle to fight.
See you next week.